“ Adaptation” often means “loosely inspired by,” and Aaron Sorkin's brilliant dialogue and construction were wholly original (as were apparently many of his facts). Writing (adapted screenplay): Here “The Social Network” will win its one major Oscar, although deserving more. (The best screenplay, in terms of sheer writing, was Mike Leigh's “ Another Year,” which could easily be adapted more or less whole for the stage.) When a film becomes the chosen one, its glories trickle down, and I expect this to be a royal year. Writing (original screenplay): Again, “The King's Speech,” by David Seidler. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams will split support for “ The Fighter.”ĭirecting: Well, here I'm more or less forced to choose Tom Hooper of “The King's Speech” because he won the Directors Guild Award, and you know the mantra: The DGA winner wins the best director Oscar 90 percent of the time. The academy has a way in this category of anointing a plucky young newcomer, and the winner will be Hailee Steinfeld, who in fact played the lead in “True Grit,” no matter what the academy thinks. Christian Bale seems to have a good chance, but when a movie gets anointed, its aura shines on its other nominees, as if voters are thinking, “Well, if I voted for ‘The King's Speech,' doesn't that mean I keep voting for it?”Īctress in a supporting role: That tendency won't carry over to this category, however, because while Helena Bonham Carter as the king's wife was splendid, as she almost always is, the role wasn't showy. Because it could be a “King's Speech” year. But she gets to “act” the most, which to the academy, often means “act out in emotional displays.” She was required to do that by the logic of the role, which had Oscar written all over it.Īctor in a supporting role: Geoffrey Rush. She is very good in “ Black Swan.” That's beside the point. nominees.Īctress in a leading role: In the way that such matters are decided by currents wafting in the air, Natalie Portman has emerged as the consensus choice. OK, I have 23 more categories to get through:Īctor in a leading role: Colin Firth for “The King's Speech.” Jeff Bridges is unlikely to win a second year in a row, and although James Franco did a heroic job under his (shall we say) constraints in “ 127 Hours,” Hollywood loves British history and often gives extra points to U.K. A British historical drama about a brave man struggling to overcome a disability and then leading his people into World War II looks better to the academy than a cutting-edge portrait of hyperactive nerds. I mean that not as a criticism of “The King's Speech,” which is a terrific film, but as an observation. A lot of academy voters don't choose the “best” in some categories, but “the most advantageous for the movie industry.” Hollywood churns out violent crap every weekend and then puts on a nice face by supporting a respectable picture at Oscar time. It's called the Persistence of Memory Effect. Oscars often go to movies that open after Thanksgiving. It became the presumed front-runner on the day it opened, but then it seemed to fade. If I were still doing “If We Picked the Winners” with Gene Siskel, my preference for best film would be “The Social Network.” It was not only the best film of 2010, but also one of those films that helps define a year.
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